Joseph Mallozzi's Weblog

February 25, 2020: Pandemic? Yes/No

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For the past month or so, I’ve been keeping abreast of this potentially burgeoning pandemic by checking out daily updates on the breaking news.  My source of information is NOT –

The WHO – which has appeared shockingly inept throughout the virus’s progression.

The CDC – that seems more worried about scaring people than informing them.

The major media – who prefer to minimize mounting concerns by comparing the coronavirus to the seasonal flu which, in their learned estimation, is infinitely worse.

No, my sources for thorough coverage have been reddit (https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu and https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/ ), twitter (@BNODesk and MackayIM). And the following youtube channels:

MedCram –

Dr. John Campbell –

Chris Martenson over at Peak Prosperity:

Hopefully, the relative indifference to this mounting global issue on the part of our political leaders will prove the correct approach.  But, just in case…

So you think you’re about to be in a pandemic?

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20 responses

  1. Gforce Avatar
    Gforce

    I’m not sure that I’d trust YouTube or Reddit as any authoritative source. I think the risk here for now is pretty low. Still, common sense things like hand washing and avoiding large crowds (and in particular airports) are pretty sufficient.

    That said, I’m rewatching the first couple of seasons of “The Last Ship” for pointers. Just in case!

    Reply
  2. Dr Z Avatar
    Dr Z

    Joe,
    Take a chill pill ,it’s not that bad.
    80% get a mild flu .
    The yearly influenza epidemics are worse.
    And “relative indifference “.?
    Really?
    Our media outlets have been in panic overdrive ,reporting every single case. Unprecedented panic.
    World governments have quarantined whole populations, closed schools etc.
    Not much more they can nor should do.

    Reply
    1. Joseph Mallozzi Avatar
      Joseph Mallozzi

      The media haven’t gotten around to really covering the true dangers presented by the virus until last week.

      Reply
      1. Dr Z Avatar
        Dr Z

        Briefly, as with any virus most cases are asymptomatic . This means that if every person was tested properly you would detect these, and the statistics would then reflect a much lower death rate than 2%.
        The real difference with covid19 is that, being a new mutation, most people have not been exposed before ,unlike influenza virus, but over time, more people will be immune.
        Hence remember the hitchhiker’s guide to the galaxy and. … Don’t PANIC (in large friendly letters)

        Reply
  3. John Avatar
    John

    I think that Canada is in pretty good shape. Anybody who has come down with Covid-19 have self-quarantined and the airplanes arriving with victims are isolated and being looked after. Nobody has tried to ‘escape’. Less developed countries are at a real risk though.

    During SARS, the health system learned a lot. I trust Health Canada to get it right; there is a very delicate balance between warning the public but not starting a panic. It is not a pandemic yet, it seems, only an epidemic. I agree it is serious. I think one must also look at the severity of the illness itself, though. People who are healthy recover (though long term consequences are not known yet). Those that smoke, have diabetes and older men (an age that I’m rapidly approaching!!) among others are more susceptible.

    Take anything I say with a grain of salt…I’m an economist by training!

    Reply
    1. Joseph Mallozzi Avatar
      Joseph Mallozzi

      https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1232366133556191235

      Reply
  4. Ruben A Hilbers Avatar
    Ruben A Hilbers

    I’m not follow anything. If it comes, it comes. All the fussing in the world won’t change that. And YouTube is a bad source of info, 99.95 percent of what on there is hysterics. Especially the so called medical experts stuff.

    Reply
  5. Rebecca Sims Avatar
    Rebecca Sims

    Excellent! Thank you for the information.

    Reply
  6. iaw84u Avatar
    iaw84u

    All will be ok. James Cole will fix time and this this pandemics with the splinter machine

    Reply
  7. Denise McInerney Avatar
    Denise McInerney

    We have a friend who’s a research epidemiologist and has worked with other variations of the Corona virus. She’s a calm and level-headed individual, not one to generate drama. But this past weekend she surprised us by calling to recommend we maintain at least a week’s worth of food in the house for the foreseeable future. She made this suggestion because my husband is over 60 with some challenging health issues, and as the mortality rate for ages 60+ is much higher than the general population (pretty much SOP for the flu, etc.) she thought it wise to be prepared. One of my husband’s issues is a severe (as in life-threatening) sulfite intolerance, so I have to make most of our own food from scratch anyway and already have a well-stocked freezer, so we’re good in that regard. Otherwise, it’s pretty much business as usual here in our metropolitan suburb on the East Coast of the US–watchful waiting and trying to sort fact from fiction.

    Reply
  8. DP Avatar
    DP

    It’s possible it will mutate into something more innocuous, if it hasn’t already.

    Reply
  9. Colleen O'Shaughnessy Avatar
    Colleen O’Shaughnessy

    Excellent info, Joe. Being in the highest risk population, I take all viral outbreaks very seriously.

    If this is no big deal, then why are the world’s stock markets tanking? The DJIA dropped 1,000 points the other day. Wake up, people!

    No, this isn’t a doomsday scenario, but getting stuck in the house for two weeks is a real possibility.

    I also live in an area of the country prone to violent weather, flooding, and infrastructure failure. It is smart to always keep several week’s worth of food, water, meds, and pet supplies on hand. You never know what could happen and it doesn’t hurt to be prepared for anything that could arise.

    Thanks again, Joe!

    Reply
    1. Gforce Avatar
      Gforce

      Just a note that the stock markets are tanking because factories in China are closing and affecting production. It is not because people are dying. They couldn’t really care less about that, other than it may affect their profits.

      Reply
      1. Colleen O'Shaughnessy Avatar
        Colleen O’Shaughnessy

        Yes, I should have stipulated that the decline in the workforce was due to illness/quarantine rather than death. That’s the reason for having backup supplies. When production stops and goods don’t move down the supply chain due to widespread illness, you’re in trouble without advance planning.

        Reply
      2. PBMom Avatar
        PBMom

        And they were tanking because of all the mixed messaging in the current administration.

        Reply
  10. tamdixon Avatar
    tamdixon

    The stock market fluctuates on just rumors, so I don’t think that’s an indication of anything. What I think is alarming is that the Chinese started building hospitals within a week or two of releasing their concerns to the world. “Wwwwhat?”

    I saw the Corona check points in China screening body temps. I wonder if they cleaned the thermometer between auto passengers? I bet they didn’t and so, if a person had Corona, and didn’t have a temp that day…. Yes, I think it’s going to get worse.

    Fill up your freezer/pantry, wash your hands, avoid traveling and then…what else can you do? I hope the CDC develops a vaccine soon. Until then, enjoy life.

    I like this quote: “Life is a terminal disease, and it is sexually transmitted.”― John Cleese,

    Reply
    1. PBMom Avatar
      PBMom

      18 months at the earliest, BUT University of Texas Medical Branch in Galveston has the SARS coronavirus in their lab that they were developing a vaccine for and it shares I think 82 or 86% of the gene structure as COVID-19 so that would be the smartest place to start.

      Reply
  11. maggiemayday Avatar
    maggiemayday

    I have food and water in the house. I am still going to LA in March. Good times.

    Reply
  12. Sonac Avatar
    Sonac

    I too have been very irritated with the mainstream media, cdc and who. Clearly all wrong. I have done some calculations myself which seem reasonable accurate and entirely different than the figures given by the WHO. I too get much of my information from reddit which is a MUCH better source.

    Reply
  13. PBMom Avatar
    PBMom

    I would say prepare for a hurricane (that is, don’t stock up on refrigerator or freezer stuff). Jeff works for an energy company. He said that if a power plant doesn’t have people to run the power plant the power won’t work. The power companies generally have reciprocal relationships where they help each other out, but let’s say this got super bad, like point of impact of the virus in China bad; then power might get disrupted. We stocked up on protein bars, things that don’t need refrigeration. I said on my blog we basically went out and bought our yearly hurricane supplies 2 months sooner than normal.

    And yes, it is now qualified to be a pandemic. An epidemic is “a sudden increase in the number of cases of a disease–more than what’s typically expected for the population in that area.” A pandemic is “an epidemic that has spread over several countries, or continents, affecting a large number of people.

    Reply

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